This is why I don't spring for cable.

Maybe you've already heard this, but a 67 year old man in rural Wisconsin (you know, real America) put a hole in his TV after Bristol Palin made it into the finals of Dancing With The Stars. Police say Steven Cowan then turned the gun on his wife, but unlike a TV, she has legs and was able to escape.

Let's look at the situation, shall we? Mr. Cowan has a constitutional right to bear arms, and the sanctity of heterosexual marriage must not be abridged by a God loving nation. The one thing we can regulate is ownership of cable TV, the one ingredient in this potentially lethal cocktail that conservatives will not defend to the death or add to the Constitution.

It's time to advocate for abstinence from cable TV. You'll thank me later.

Informed voters, yes.Informative reporters, not so much.

So the Ipsos/Reuters poll I responded to has been made public. I always find new numbers interesting, but these are partly troubling, partly heartening and partly too undecided to be useful, especially at this late date. Also, the story gives some information that puts all the numbers in dispute.

The troubling numbers
Boxer's lead over Fiorina has shrunk to 46% to 45%.

The comforting numbers
Brown's lead over Whitman is now 48% to 44%.

The too undecided numbers
Prop. 23, the crap anti-environmental proposal endorsed by two Texas oil companies, is getting shellacked 46% to 35%, but having 19% undecided at this late date is unnerving.

The problem with the reporting is this. Ipsos/Reuters says the poll was done with 601 Registered Voters, of which 448 call themselves likely voters. They say the margin of error on the big sample should be 4.0%, while the smaller sample should have a margin of error of 4.8%.

Hmmmmmm, not so fast.

The probability that the smaller sample has the exact same percentages for Brown, Whitman, Boxer, Fiorina, pro-23 and anti-23 is teeny tiny. There should be some differences, but I can't find them anywhere in the story and they don't link to a raw numbers .pdf.

By the way, if we assume the numbers are for the larger OR the smaller sample, we can do a confidence of victory test for Brown and Boxer, because over 90% of respondents show a preference for one of the two main candidates. With the 81% either pro or con Prop. 23, we are SOL because of the high undecided.

If the numbers are out of n=601
We are about 60% confident this poll shows Boxer will beat Fiorina if the election were held when the poll was taken.
We are about 85% confident this poll shows Brown will beat Whitman if the election were held when the poll was taken.


If the numbers are out of n=448
We are about 60% confident this poll shows Boxer will beat Fiorina if the election were held when the poll was taken.
We are about 80% confident this poll shows Brown will beat Whitman if the election were held when the poll was taken.

Neither election is in the bag, but early voting has already started, so for some people, the election is being held when the poll was taken. There is still uncertainty, but for right thinking people, none of the numbers point to our impending doom.

If you really want impending doom, go to my other blog and read the stories from the Sun.

It's okay to click. Remember, when it comes to my other blog, I'm not silently judging you.

Matty Boy, Shaper of Public Opinion.

So I was lounging around my palatial penthouse suite the other evening when I get a phone call. A young woman is on the other end of the line, begging to know my opinion on the important issues of the day.

I know the question on your mind. Why should this night be different from any other night?

The young woman was calling from a company called Ipsos. She was very pleasant, though from their logo it appears they mainly hire Chia pets. She asked me questions about upcoming election in California. It just so happens that with all the questions she asked, good class warrior that I am, I was voting no on the rich stealing from the poor. No on 23. No on Whitman. No on Fiorina. She asked me some demographic questions and the call went smoothly.

She also let me ask her some questions about her job. As a statistics teacher, I was wondering how many people hang up on her. She couldn't give a reliable number, but she did say if someone was willing to answer one question, it was usually an "in for a penny, in for a pound" situation.

In the coming days, you may see a poll from Ipsos giving numbers on the upcoming California contests. You may wonder what sort of people they talked to. Rest assured, they were talking to bright and well-informed people, and the interviewers were pleasant and competent.